The 2025 Delhi Assembly Election was a pivotal event in the political landscape of India’s national capital, marking a significant shift after a decade of dominance by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Held on February 5, 2025, with results declared on February 8, 2025, the election featured a fierce three-way contest among the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Indian National Congress (INC). This article examines the election’s timeline, key predictions, opinion polls, exit polls, and final results, providing a comprehensive overview of the events that shaped Delhi’s political future.
Election Timeline and Context
The tenure of the 7th Delhi Legislative Assembly was set to conclude on February 15, 2025, necessitating elections to elect all 70 members of the assembly. The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced February 5, 2025, as the polling date, with vote counting and result declaration scheduled for February 8, 2025. The model code of conduct was enforced from the announcement date until the election concluded, ensuring a fair electoral process. Delhi, with approximately 1.56 crore registered voters (including 83.76 lakh men, 72.36 lakh women, and 1,267 third-gender voters), saw a voter turnout of 60.39%, slightly lower than the 62.59% recorded in 2020. Mustafabad recorded the highest constituency turnout at 69%, while Karol Bagh had the lowest at 47.40%.
The election was a high-stakes battle, with the AAP, led by Arvind Kejriwal, aiming for a third consecutive term after sweeping victories in 2015 (67 seats) and 2020 (62 seats). The BJP, out of power in Delhi since 1998, sought to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiments against the AAP, focusing on issues such as corruption, pollution, and water scarcity. The Congress, which ruled Delhi from 1998 to 2013 under Sheila Dikshit, aimed to reclaim relevance after failing to win any seats in the last two elections.
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Opinion Polls: Pre-Election Predictions
Opinion polls conducted in the months leading up to the election provided early insights into voter sentiment, though they varied widely in their projections. These polls reflected the competitive nature of the contest and highlighted shifting voter preferences.
- August 2024 Opinion Poll: An early poll suggested a close race, with AAP and BJP each projected to win 35 seats (±3) and vote shares of 48% and 47%, respectively. Congress was expected to win 0–3 seats with a 3% vote share, indicating a tight contest.
- October 2024 Opinion Poll: Another poll predicted a BJP victory with 43 seats, AAP at 24 seats, and three seats for others, signaling growing momentum for the BJP.
- December 2024 Opinion Poll: A poll by @cholo_pagan projected BJP at 44 seats (±3), AAP at 25 seats (±3), and Congress at one seat (±3), with vote shares of 45–48% for BJP, 41–43% for AAP, and 7–10% for Congress.
- January 2025 Opinion Poll: @HindiKhabar’s poll predicted a strong AAP performance, projecting 55 seats with a 49% vote share, while the BJP was estimated at 15 seats with 39% votes. This was an outlier compared to other polls that favored the BJP.
- Late January 2025 Opinion Poll: A poll by @vyasa1968 estimated the BJP at 42 seats, AAP at 22 seats, and eight seats as “CantSays,” noting a decline in AAP’s Scheduled Caste (SC) vote share from 53% in 2020 to 44% in 2025.
- February 2025 Final Prediction: @PoliticalViewsO forecasted BJP winning 39–45 seats, AAP 23–29 seats, and Congress 0–2 seats, predicting a BJP majority and even suggesting Kejriwal might lose his New Delhi seat.
These polls underscored the polarized voter base, with the BJP gaining traction among upper and middle-class voters, while AAP retained strong support among poorer communities and Muslim voters. However, the reliability of opinion polls was questioned, as they often underestimated AAP’s performance in previous elections.
Exit Polls: Post-Voting Projections
Exit polls, released after polling concluded on February 5, 2025, at 6:30 pm, provided a clearer picture of voter trends. Most exit polls predicted a BJP victory, ending AAP’s decade-long rule, though a few suggested a closer race. Key exit poll projections included:
- Axis My India: Forecasted BJP winning 45–55 seats with a 48% vote share, AAP 15–25 seats with 42%, and Congress 0–1 seat with 7%. This pollster had accurately predicted AAP’s 2020 victory.
- Today’s Chanakya: Projected BJP at 45–57 seats with 49% vote share, AAP at 13–25 seats with 41%, and Congress 0–3 seats.
- P-Marq: Estimated BJP at 39–49 seats, AAP at 21–31 seats, and Congress 0–1 seat.
- People’s Pulse & Codemo: Predicted a BJP sweep with 51–60 seats, AAP 10–19 seats, and Congress 0 seats.
- Matrize: Indicated a tight race, with BJP at 35–40 seats, AAP at 32–37 seats, and Congress 0–1 seat.
- WeePreside and Mind Brink: Two outliers predicted an AAP victory, with WeePreside forecasting AAP at 46–52 seats, BJP at 18–23, and Congress at 0–1.
AAP leaders, including Sanjay Singh and Saurabh Bharadwaj, dismissed these projections, calling them “surveys by massage and spa companies” and citing past inaccuracies in 2013, 2015, and 2020, where exit polls underestimated AAP’s seat count. BJP leaders, such as Manoj Tiwari and Harsh Malhotra, expressed confidence, citing a “Modi wave” and voter disillusionment with the AAP’s governance.
Campaign Dynamics and Key Issues
The election campaign was intense, marked by aggressive rhetoric, welfare promises, and accusations of corruption. Key issues included:
- AAP’s Campaign: AAP focused on its governance record, emphasizing free electricity, water, healthcare, and education. It announced schemes like the Mahila Samman Yojana (₹2,100 monthly for women) and the Sanjeevani Yojana for older people. However, controversies surrounding Kejriwal’s “Sheesh Mahal” residence, the liquor policy scam, and unfulfilled promises to clean the Yamuna River hurt its image.
- BJP’s Campaign: The BJP’s “Parivartan Yatra” highlighted AAP’s alleged corruption and governance failures, particularly in areas such as Yamuna pollution, water shortages, and air quality, with Delhi’s AQI often exceeding 400. PM Narendra Modi’s rally in Rohini criticized AAP’s “Aapda” (disaster) governance. The BJP promised the Mahila Samridhi Yojana (₹2,500 monthly for women) and Matru Suraksha Vandana (₹21,000 for pregnant women).
- Congress’s Campaign: Congress launched the “Dilli Nyay Yatra” in November 2024, targeting pollution, inflation, unemployment, and waste disposal. It promised universal health insurance up to ₹25 lakh and the Pyari Didi Yojna (₹2,500 monthly for women). Despite these efforts, Congress struggled to regain the trust of its voters.
Voter discontent was evident, with over 90% of respondents in a Lokniti-CSDS survey expressing dissatisfaction with Delhi’s cleanliness and more than 80% highlighting air pollution and water scarcity as significant concerns.
Election Results: A Historic Shift
The final results, announced on February 8, 2025, confirmed a dramatic shift in Delhi’s political landscape. The BJP secured a decisive victory, winning 48 out of 70 seats with a 45.56% vote share, marking the end of its 27-year exile from power in Delhi. The AAP won 22 seats with a 43.57% vote share, a significant decline from its 2020 tally of 62 seats. The Congress failed to win any seats for the third consecutive election, despite a slight increase in its vote share to 6.34%.
Key highlights of the results include:
- High-Profile Losses: AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal lost the New Delhi seat to BJP’s Parvesh Verma, and former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia was defeated in Jangpura. Other AAP leaders, including Satyendra Kumar Jain, Somnath Bharti, Saurabh Bharadwaj, Rakhi Birla, and Durgesh Pathak, also lost their seats.
- Victory Margins: AAP’s Aaley Mohammad Iqbal won Matia Mahal with the highest margin of 42,724 votes, while BJP’s Chandan Kumar Choudhary won Sangam Vihar by a narrow 344 votes.
- Voter Demographics: BJP dominated “rich” constituencies with a 52.6% vote share, while AAP led in “poorest” areas with 48.5%. Muslim voters primarily supported the AAP, but the BJP made inroads in North-East Delhi constituencies, such as Timarpur and Mustafabad.
Post-Election Developments
Following the results, the BJP moved swiftly to form the government, with its legislative party meeting on February 19, 2025, to select Rekha Gupta as Delhi’s new Chief Minister, marking her as the fourth woman to hold the post. The BJP’s first budget, unveiled on February 27, 2025, was a ₹1 lakh crore plan emphasizing women’s safety and education. PM Modi pledged to address civic issues, primarily cleaning the Yamuna River, which he promised would become a defining feature of Delhi’s identity.
AAP, despite its defeat, vowed to continue its fight, with leaders like Atishi, who won in Kalkaji, emphasizing the importance of resilience. The party faced challenges, including allegations that the BJP was poaching its candidates with offers of ₹15 crore and ministerial positions, which the BJP denied. The AAP also raised concerns about electoral malpractices and the transparency of EVMs.
Congress’s third consecutive shutout prompted introspection, with leaders like Sandeep Dikshit acknowledging the need to rebuild. The party’s focus on welfare schemes failed to resonate, and its vote share remained marginal.
Analysis and Implications
The 2025 Delhi election results marked a turning point, driven by voter frustration with the AAP’s governance failures, particularly in areas such as pollution, water scarcity, and the state of the Yamuna River. The BJP’s campaign, leveraging PM Modi’s leadership and anti-corruption rhetoric, resonated with a broad voter base, particularly in affluent areas. AAP’s loss of key leaders and seats highlighted the challenges of sustaining anti-incumbency after a decade in power. Congress’s continued irrelevance underscored its struggle to regain footing in Delhi.
The BJP’s victory sets the stage for a new governance model in Delhi, with promises to address long-standing civic issues. However, the narrow vote share gap (45.56% for BJP vs. 43.57% for AAP) suggests a polarized electorate, and AAP’s strong performance in poorer constituencies indicates it remains a formidable opposition. The results also raise questions about AAP’s national party status and its future leadership strategy.
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Frequently Asked Questions
When was the Delhi Assembly Election 2025 held?
The election was held on February 5, 2025, with results declared on February 8, 2025.
What was the voter turnout for the 2025 Delhi election?
The voter turnout was 60.39%, with approximately 1.56 crore registered voters. Mustafabad had the highest turnout at 69%, while Karol Bagh had the lowest at 47.40%.
Which party won the Delhi Assembly Election 2025?
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won, securing 48 out of 70 seats with a 45.56% vote share.
How did the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) perform in the election?
AAP won 22 seats with a 43.57% vote share, a significant decline from its 62 seats in 2020.
Did the Congress win any seats in 2025?
No, the Indian National Congress (INC) failed to win any seats, marking its third consecutive election with zero seats, though it had a 6.34% vote share.
Conclusion
The 2025 Delhi Assembly Election was a landmark event, with the BJP’s victory signaling a new chapter for the capital. While opinion and exit polls offered varying predictions, the results confirmed a strong anti-incumbency wave against AAP and a voter preference for the BJP’s promises of change. As Delhi transitions under new leadership, the focus will be on whether the BJP can deliver on its pledges to address pollution, water scarcity, and civic infrastructure. At the same time, AAP and Congress strategize to regain lost ground in future elections.
